A Draw Is Always Better Here???

People see this and, most will say that a draw is always the best shape to play here.

Some even go as far as to say “because it will eliminate the water”.

I get it. It sounds and looks and feels logical.

But it’s wrong. Let me explain.

Imagine a player who almost ALWAYS draws their shots (few double-crosses). They’re on the range and they start the ball right (dotted line) and their pattern looks like this.

“But Adam, that player is starting the ball 25 yards right”

Yup – due to dispersion sizes and human variability, in order to get a 13-yard standard deviation (which is a reasonably decent player) you would HAVE TO start the ball this far right to never double-cross.

When we overlay this onto our original scenario, it looks like this

“Sure, but if they aim more right they will eliminate the water”

Ok, let’s do that…

To (almost) eliminate the water, they would need to start the ball 47 yards right.

The score comes down slightly, (3.41 vs 3.45) but it’s nowhere near optimal.

Optimal would actually be here – in a place where there are slightly MORE water balls (I can write future articles on why). Score of 3.28 (vs 3.41/3.45)

However

What if this player plays a tighter dispersion with a fade?

Here we have a player who has a 9-yard standard deviation (vs 13 earlier) and MORE double crosses.

Overlay this onto the scenario and we have this

look at the score. And that’s not even optimized for this player yet.

If we optimize the start line, we get this

THE DIFFERENCE

So the best you would score with the draw would be 3.28.

With the fade here – 3.09

The take-home message is,

In almost every scenario, the TIGHTEST dispersion pattern, aimed correctly, will score the lowest.

Final note – I’m actually NOT saying that fade is always best here. Re-read the last sentence above.

If the player is better with a draw, and has a tighter dispersion with a draw, then THAT shot, properly aimed, will be best (as shown below).

However, note the score – it’s the same as the fader.

Once again – the tightest dispersion pattern aimed correctly = lowest score.

And if dispersions are the same for a given shape, it doesn’t matter which one you play.

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